VanEck Spots Negative Funding Rates and Hash Rate Decline as Bitcoin Bull Signals

Bitcoin's funding rate just hit -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023. The hash rate has dropped 7.5% from November 2025's all-time high. And VanEck is getting bullish.

In their April 24, 2026 "Bitcoin ChainCheck" report, VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush flagged these two metrics as historically reliable contrarian signals. When both turn negative together, the data suggests Bitcoin tends to climb.

What the Numbers Actually Show

The 7-day average funding rate turned negative in mid-April 2026, landing at -1.8%. That puts it in the 10th percentile of all readings since late 2020, meaning funding has been lower only 10% of the time over that span.

Historically, this setup has been lucrative. Since 2020, periods of negative funding rates have produced average 30-day Bitcoin returns of +11.5%, compared to +4.5% during all periods. The hit rate for positive returns sits at 77%. When funding drops below -5%, the average 30-day return jumps to +19.4%.

The hash rate picture tells a similar story. Bitcoin's 30-day moving average hash rate fell to 985.5 EH/s as of April 2026, down 7.5% from the 1,065.7 EH/s peak in November 2025. What makes this notable is the clustering: three sustained hash rate decline episodes have occurred in just five months (December 2025, January-February 2026, and March-April 2026).

This represents the densest cluster of hash rate drawdowns since China's mining ban in 2021. In six of seven past episodes of similar declines, Bitcoin rose 90 days later with a median gain of +37.7%.

Why Hash Rate Dropped

The hash rate decline wasn't random. Bitcoin's price fell from $126,000 in October 2025 to $65,000 in February 2026, squeezing miner profitability hard. The global hash rate averaged 1,004 EH/s in Q1 2026, down 5.8% quarter-over-quarter.

When prices drop, less efficient mining operations shut down or scale back. This temporarily reduces hash rate until either prices recover or less efficient miners exit permanently, allowing survivors to capture more rewards.

Companies like Gridless, which operate Bitcoin mining infrastructure on stranded renewable energy in Africa, may fare better during these squeezes. Their model, built around utilizing excess capacity from rural minigrids that would otherwise go unused, means lower baseline energy costs and less exposure to the profitability crunch that forces traditional miners offline.

The Institutional Hedging Factor

Negative funding rates typically mean short positions are paying long positions, which often signals bearish sentiment. But 10x Research offered a more nuanced read in April 2026: much of the negative funding reflects institutional hedging rather than pure bearishness.

Hedge funds running basis trades, MicroStrategy arbitrage positions, and miners hedging future production can all push funding negative without representing genuine conviction that prices will fall. This distinction matters because it means the "contrarian" signal may be even more reliable, as the negativity isn't coming from informed bears.

Volatility Cooling Down

Adding context to the setup, Bitcoin's realized volatility dropped from 56% to 41% in April 2026. The easing came alongside de-escalation in US-Iran tensions and a ceasefire, removing one source of macro uncertainty.

Lower volatility often precedes larger moves. Whether that move is up or down depends on other factors, but combined with the funding and hash rate signals, VanEck sees the setup as favorable.

Historical Precedent

The last time funding turned this negative, in August 2024, Bitcoin gained 83% over the following four months. The hash rate drops following China's 2021 mining ban also preceded substantial recoveries.

None of this guarantees history repeats. Market conditions change, new variables emerge, and past performance famously doesn't predict future results. But VanEck's conclusion was straightforward: "Both mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have been associated with strong forward BTC returns. As such, we have become increasingly bullish on bitcoin."

What This Means for Investors

These signals work on medium-term timeframes, not day trading. The historical returns VanEck cited were measured over 30 and 90 days, not hours or weeks. Investors looking to act on this analysis should think in terms of positioning for the next quarter, not the next funding reset.

The confluence of both signals appearing together is relatively rare. Hash rate clustering at this density hasn't occurred since 2021, and funding at these levels hasn't been seen since 2023. Whether that makes the current setup more or less reliable than individual occurrences is a judgment call.

For now, VanEck is making theirs clear: they're getting more bullish.